Slouching toward January 

Around the world corporate leaders are watching the final days of the 2024 US presidential election with the same question on their mind: “What does each outcome mean for my industry and my company?”  

It’s a reasonable question, although in practice most companies and industries will feel more impact from technological change and market forces than policy choices made in Washington. The exception to this will be macroeconomics, because interest rates, tax and tariff levels, and federal spend will have real business implications.  

Zooming-in and down from the macro-level, companies should anticipate many of the usual left-right splits for industry depending on who sits at the Resolute Desk come January.  

  • Energy and resource extraction companies will find a friendlier Trump EPA while green and renewable resources will be embraced by a President Harris.  
  • A Harris-Walz Administration will push AI to reflect the Administration’s progressive values, with a Trump Administration viewing AI through the lens of competition with China and guideposts around conservative censorship.  
  • The nascent cryptocurrency market is in for more turbulence under a Harris-Walz Administration, which is more likely to carry forward SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s approach than a Trump-Vance SEC. 
  • The cloud and enterprise IT sector will encounter backdoor cybersecurity regulations, in the form of the US government flexing its market share by raising the minimum federal government IT acquisition standards published by NIST.  
  • If former President Trump prevails, trade-sensitive companies ranging from retail to automotive should expect additional tariffs on trade with China, and targeted tariffs aimed even at friendly nations with dominant exports, like Germany and Japan.  
  • Regardless of who wins the White House, it won’t be a honeymoon for large defense primes with downward pressure on the defense topline budget. But both parties are intrigued by the swell of VC-backed innovation disrupting the defense and space sectors and eager for interoperability with new entrants from allied partners across Australia, the UK, and others.  
  • Likewise, consumer-facing social media and related sites will continue to see more stringent age and identity verification requirements to protect children.  

Plus ça change 

Despite the differences outlined above and others, corporate leaders should expect more consistency than divergence – especially if the result is divided government. As such, the better question is not “what does this mean for my industry and company,” but rather “how can I best hire and prepare a world-class government affairs team set-up for success over the next 4 – 8 years?”  

With that in mind, here are some quick tips for a chief executive recruiting a government affairs leader to chart the way in Washington, DC over the coming years:  

Do’s 

  • Do decide what kind of government affairs archetype fits your needs: 
    • Executive. Built like their peers in legal, finance, marketing, and product. They know how to manage people and run a department. If they need domain expertise or access, they hire and manage it.  
    • Consigliere. This is the CEO’s right hand and political whisperer. Providing advice on what positions to take and how to take them. These professionals often have earned their stripes in the political or campaign world.  
    • Corporate Ambassador. This person is at the table to show the corporate flag. They’re educators, not advocates. Former diplomats often fall into this category.  
    • Translator. This person can quantify how even the most arcane Washington processes and ceremonies will impact the bottom-line to the delight of the CFO.  
    • Operator. This is the kind of person who’s more comfortable with political fundraisers and personal relationships than two-hour deep dives with regulators. 
    • Wonk. This is the credibility play, who raises the collective IQ of everyone in the room and impresses even the most trenchant technocrat with expertise.  
    • Conductor. Understands how Congressional Affairs, regulatory outreach, political giving, think tank investments, ESG and impact giving, and other discreet operations come together to drive a desired outcome.  
  • No matter the archetype you pick, your leader needs to be fluent in the four P’s of lobbying: 
    • Policy. Mastery of the substantive policy issues impacting your industry is a non-negotiable for government affairs leadership. 
    • Politics. A sound leader also understands the political subtleties that impact your industry. These may be left/right, or regional, or even gender divides emanating from differently situated interests or business models. Leadership requires not just avoiding minefields, but using incentives to drive behavior. 
    • People. Access is a basic building block of good government affairs. A government affairs leader needs to know who the players on the field are.  
    • Process. Government is nothing if not process. A government affairs leader has to understand how the timing and processes behind legislative calendars, appointment cycles, budget reviews – and yes, investigations – play a role in a winning government affairs outcome.  
  • Do you consider hiring a government affairs leader with a political background very different from the prevailing corporate culture? 
    • Are you an extractive oil & gas company? You’ll need help with the Democrats.  
    • Are you a Bay Area gaming and social media website? A conservative Republican can open otherwise closed doors.  
    • Are you a 100-year old family-owned concern with an aging white male board? A progressive Democrat can fill that gap. 

And now for a few Don’ts: 

  • Don’t feel that you need to kneejerk hire a leader with close personal connections to the White House, or even of the same party as the White House.  
  • Don’t feel that you need to change horses in your corporate government affairs leadership just because the White House changes hands. Swap your consultants, not your in-house team.  
  • Don’t hire someone from the diplomatic or foreign service corps just because you’re a foreign-headquartered inbound company. Remember, they spent most of their careers in the field, not getting things done on the inside.  
  • Don’t hire an industry veteran from a large team if you’re a scrappy start-up used to doing a lot with a little. Success in a Fortune 500 doesn’t mean success at a Series A.  
  • Don’t hire a government affairs leader just because you’ve grown to a size where your peers have one. 
  • Don’t hire a government affairs executive and then ask them to write their own job description. Decide at the Board or C-Suite level what you want to achieve and hire for that. 
  • Don’t hire a government affairs leader without resourcing the function: staff, trade associations, consultants, T&E budget, and political giving should be a packaged deal. 

No matter what you decide you want in a government affairs leader, Mavence is ready to come alongside our clients and help you identify and recruit the very best talent.  

 

Michael A. Clauser is a Senior Advisor to Mavence based in Washington, DC. He is the Founder & Managing Director of Ark, a boutique government affairs firm and is a venture scout. A former naval officer, Mike’s public service includes appointed roles in the Pentagon and US House of Representatives.